DeBoer Fits Bama | Alabama Prediction | SEC Breaks Away

Alabama doesn’t do rebuilding years, so when a national voice questions whether Kalen DeBoer is the right fit, I have to answer it head-on. I ook past the clip wars and ask the only question that matters in Tuscaloosa: if the standard is winning, what do DeBoer’s results actually say? He may not be “perfect,” but he’s a winner, and that’s the language Alabama claims to speak fluently.

Then I dig into why Alabama still lands around No. 7 in SEC preseason rankings and why the doubts aren’t made up. The offensive line is being rebuilt with multiple new starters, including transfer portal additions that feel more like development bets than instant stars. That connects directly to the biggest swing factor on the roster: the quarterback decision. Austin Mack or Keelon Russell? 

 From there, I run through a game-by-game Alabama season prediction, talk ceiling versus floor, and finish with the bigger college football storm clouds: the SEC’s very real interest in breaking away from the NCAA, the role of lawsuits and antitrust protection, and why the Big Ten versus SEC debate depends on more than just recent national titles.

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Thanks for listening to The 3rd Down Conversation. If you enjoyed today's episode, be sure to subscribe, leave a review, and share it with another sports fan. Remember, every down matters but the conversation states here. Until next time, keep the chains moving and keep the conversation going. 

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DeBoer Fits Bama?

SPEAKER_05 0:00

Paylon Gabor has just made a mess out of a great situation. He's lost eight games in two years, as Stephen A. said. He lost to Florida State last year, which was total trash and should have fired his coach. He lost to Oklahoma Human Humble. Yeah, he won the playoff game. He also was down 17 uh Oklahoma had a 17-month leave and completely choked the game away. As Steven and I both remember because we were talking during the game. But let's not get carried away with the board. He's an excellent coach, but he's even right coaching blah blah blah. And Stephen, I think I think you know the answer.

SPEAKER_02 0:38

Welcome to the third down conversation and your place for sports and entertainment. I am the turnip C. Let's talk about it. Welcome on into the third down conversation, my good people. Please remember to like and subscribe so you can always get the latest and the greatest from the third down conversation. That was the great, and I use great loosely, Paul Feinbaum. Talking about Kellen the Boer of Alabama and if he's the right fit for the Crimson Tide. The more I think about this, the more I have to ask myself, what is Alabama truly about? They would say they're about winning. I mean, they claim 20,000 championships with only six are real, but they would say we are about winning because that's their standard. And if that is true, then what is killing the board? He's a winner. The board is 26 in top 25 matchups. That means he wins 75% of those games. He is one of only seven coaches that have coached in the SEC to reach the conference championship game in year two. He's with the likes of Nick Saban, Urban Meyer, Kirby Smart, Gene Chiswick, Mark Rick, and Tommy Tarboville. Think about those coaches and how well their careers went. He's with those guys. He made the playoffs at Washington. He's also done that at Alabama. He's appeared in a national championship game. His first year at Alabama replacing Nick Saban, he goes nine and three. Year two, he goes ten and two. The guy wins. Okay, you lost to a bad Oklahoma team on the road in year one. It happens. You lost to a Florida State team, year two, on the road, and after you lost to them, everybody assumed Florida State was gonna be good that year. But they wasn't. But again, you played them early, you lose that game. Okay, but look how they bounced back throughout that season. Winning four straight top 25 matchups. You've got a two-in-one record against Kirby Smart. You make the conference championship game. You make the playoffs. Yes, you were down 17-0 on the road to Oklahoma. You came back and won. It's not how you start, it's how you finish, right? And I can tell you, if that was Hugh Freeze and Auburn, down 17 on the road, that game is over. So you got to put some respect on his name for doing that at Oklahoma. De Boer is a winner. And that is what Alabama wants. I can't think of another coach that they can go and get that would do better, honestly. You might say Lane Kiffin, but Lane Kiffin is too volatile. He's too much of a wild card to fit in with Tuscaloosa. Which is why his tenure while they're coaching as the OC, that's why it ended so abruptly. Because Lane is going to be Lane. You might say, well, what about Pete Golden? And I get it. He used to be the DC there for so many years, but can we pump the brakes on Pete Golden? I'm not saying he's going to be a bad coach. I'm not wishing any ill will as far as his uh career goes, but can we at least get through one year of him being the head guy? Please? Just one. And then we can make our decisions as far as is he good? Is he not good? Is he kind of just mediocre? There's nobody that really comes to mind outside of Kirby Smart, who's not gonna leave Georgia, or Nick Sabin himself. So, Paul, is he the right guy for Tuscaloosa? Yes. He may not be the perfect guy, but he's the right guy. Because they're about winning, and he wins. Period.

Preseason Rank And Real Roster Holes

SPEAKER_03 6:02

And I got a feeling the reason why they come in at number seven on your preseason list in the SEC is because there are just so many darn questions that need to be answered.

SPEAKER_00 6:11

Yeah, that's that's a perfect way of putting it. And uh yeah, since 2012 I've been covering this, and I don't remember an Alabama roster with this many questions here in spring and in July and August heading into the year. And usually the questions are just which five stars are going to win the job. I mean, there are some deeper questions here heading into the season. Run the ball, stop the run. I mean, that that's a big part of college football. It's a huge part of college football, especially in the FCC. And last year they really struggled with both, especially running the ball. Uh ended up being Alabama's worst rushing attack in a hundred years.

SPEAKER_02 6:40

That was the three-man front from um Jox, which is a local radio show. And they're talking about um Alabama being ranked preseason number seven in the SEC. Look, it's no secret. Alabama could not run the ball well last year, and they could not stop the run either. So going into this season, everyone is focusing on their offensive line and their defensive line. From an offensive line standpoint, they're gonna have three or four new starters. The guys they got out of the transfer portal, they were not the high-end guys. They opted to go for more hidden gems. For instance, their center is from Cal Poly. I'm not even sure what division that is. Maybe it's one double A, but he's played a lot. However, the talent level that he has played against, not so great. So that is concerning. Because can they run the ball? The next part of it, as far as from the offensive side of things, is who's the quarterback? The board has come out and said that they wish they had a guy, but currently they just they don't. They haven't made a decision. The race is between Austin Mack and Keelan Russell. If it's close, if it's close, I'm going with Austin Mack. And that's because he has been in De Bohr's system for three years. He followed De Boer from Washington. I understand that Russell has a major, major upside. I understand that you want to get him out there because you're paying him Hampson money, I'm sure. But you're also worried that he may transfer. I get that completely. However, why I don't believe the boy should be under any pressure, he's clearly under pressure going into year three. Therefore, he needs to go with the more surefied option at quarterback. Especially with an offensive line that is kind of rebuilt. Go with the guy that knows the system like the back of his hand, that have had limited experience, came in last year against Indiana. Yes, the game's out of hand at that moment in time, but looked well, looked under control and knew what he was doing, I'd go with that guy. And if that doesn't go well, you can always go to the youngster. In my opinion, keep that in your back pocket in case the wheels fall off. If things go kind of sideways and you want to go to the young guy, he can kind of save you a little bit if it comes to that, much like how DJ Lagway saved Billy Napier. So when you think about the offensive line and that quarterback situation, that is very concerning. On the other side, defensively, everybody loves their secondary. Many, many sports personalities have said that the secondary is the strongest unit on the team. I question it a little bit because they run a ton of zone, and it just makes me think they really can't match up. And maybe I'm looking at that wrong. Maybe they're doing that to keep the quarterback from running for a lot of like running for a lot of yards. If you're playing someone that's, you know, that can scramble like a Biden Brown, uh, Trinidad Chamblers, Marcel Reid. If you're playing someone of that magnitude, so they can kind of see what's happening in the backfield, maybe that's the reason why they play a lot of zone. But with that unit playing a lot of zone, that's gonna put a lot of pressure on your defensive line and your linebackers. Because they're gonna have to stop the run. And last year they couldn't do it, they just could not stop the run. So again, very concerning, very concerning. I can understand why they are preseason number seven in it in the SEC. With those concerns, how well will Alabama perform? My prediction is coming up next.

Game-By-Game Alabama Season Prediction

SPEAKER_02 11:27

All right, so what is my prediction for the Alabama Chris and Tide? With all the questions, the offensive line, the quarterback, can they stop the run? Can they run the ball? How do I feel? Or how do I predict their season will unfold? They open this season with East Carolina. That's a win. Week two, they've got Kentucky on the road. I think that game will be tricky, especially if Russell is starting. I think that game will be very, very interesting. However, Kentucky has a new coach. He was the former offensive coordinator at Oregon. They brought in some good porter players, but I am going to give Alabama that game. So that puts them at 2-0. Week three. Florida State comes to Tuscaloosa. And this game, sneaky, sneaky, good game again. Florida State has Ashton Daniels right now, my boy from Auburn. I've got some some love for him. I want him to play well, but I just don't see Florida State beating Alabama two years in a row. I just don't see it. I think they're going to come in with a bit of a revenge factor. That game's going to be on ABC. I like the Crimson Tide to get their revenge and beat Florida State. Week four, South Carolina comes to Tuscaloosa. I think South Carolina's going nowhere fast. I would like for them to beat Alabama this week, but I just don't see it. I think Shane Beamer is squarely on the hot seat. He claims that South Carolina is his dream job, and it is. His dad used to coach there. But I just, I don't think they have enough. On the road, I just don't, I don't see it. I don't see it. And that's going to be the first nail into the shame, beam, or coughing of getting fired. I hate that form, but maybe they can shock Alabama, but I just, I don't see it. So at that point, they are 4-0. Then they travel to Mississippi State. And this game is interesting because I think Mississippi State is a bit of a sleeper. Some people are kind of high on them, while others are thinking they're not going to be very good. Until they show me, I don't think they stand a chance against Alabama. I just don't. Regardless of who's the quarterback. I think Bama rolls that game, actually. So that puts them at 5-0. Very good start. Very manageable first five games, by the way. Very manageable. And then things get real. Georgia comes to Tuscaloosa. De Boer has beaten Kirby twice in the regular season. Overall record, two and one. DeBoer's first year, he beats him in Tuscaloosa. DeBoer's second year, he beats him in Athens. If you've seen the water boy and Coach Klein is coaching against one of the coaches he used to like work for or work under. And when they play against each other, he just he just folds up and just becomes a shell of himself. I think that's what happens with Kirby when he plays Alabama. He just something goes awry and he just can't beat him. He just can't. Now he has, but just most of the time he catches that L. I believe this time he finally becomes the coach Klein and gets that W in the bourbon bowl. So Kirby finally beats the Boer, beats Alabama in the regular season, and that will drop Alabama to 5-1. Then the Crimson Tide go on the road to Tennessee. And this game is tricky. I'm not very high on Tennessee. I question their quarterback situation greatly. And I think that's really gonna make their season go up or down. Again, last year Tennessee did not beat a team with a winning record. With that being said, I think Alabama loses on the road to Tennessee. I don't know why I feel that way, but I just do. So now they're five and two, and people are starting to chirp. The board seat is heating up at this point. Following the Tennessee game, they'll go back home and play Texas AM. This one's tough for me. I like Mike Elko. I like what he's built at Texas AM. I like Marcel Reed. And I'm big on if your quarterback is better than the opposing team's quarterback, and everything else is kind of even or just slightly above the other, then I'm gonna lean towards the better quarterback. However, this game is in Tuscaloosa. Alabama would be on a two-game losing streak. So the question is: do I see the Crimson Tide dropping three games in a row? As much as I want to say I do, I don't. I don't see them dropping three in a row. So I think they beat Texas AM mainly because they're playing that game at home. So at that point, they're six and two. Following there, AM game, they will play LSU on the road. Lane Kiffen. Lane Kiffin. This game, regardless of Austin Mac or Russell starting, is gonna be insane. Insane. I don't see LSU losing this game. I just I just don't. I don't think there's much Alabama will be able to do with like the talent that they have, meaning LSU. I think Land Kim is gonna be keyed up for this game. Much like Kirby Smart, he can't seem to beat Alabama in the regular season either. I think he gets this one though. I think he gets this one. And that will drop the Crimson Tide to 6-3. Next, they will play Vanderbilt on the road. Vandy will not be the Vandy of old. They will be the Vandy that we've seen over the last couple of seasons. They have a good coach in Karlock Lee. The quarterback situation is interesting. I think the true freshman will probably start, but maybe they'll go with a um a more experienced guy. That guy's name escapes me right now, so sorry about that. But I'm just really hoping and will and would like for Vanny to go back to being regular Vany. That might not happen, though, but that's what I'm hoping for. However, I do see Alabama winning that game. I see Alabama winning that game and get into 7-3. After Vanny and they play Chattanooga, Bama wins. And then we have the Iron Bowl. Auburn travels to Alabama. Yes, I'm an Auburn fan. And on my previous episode, I had Bama beating Auburn in the Iron Bowl. And I'm gonna stick with that here. I'm gonna stick with that here. And say that Bama does win that game. And it's simply because they're playing them in Tuscaloosa. Auburn hasn't won in Tuscaloosa since 2010. That's a long time. Like over a decade. So again, I'm gonna give them that win against Auburn right now, but as we get closer, I won't feel that way at all. So I think the tide would go 9-3, but I do believe they have a floor of 8-4. Like, I could see them losing Georgia, Tennessee, Texas AM, and LSU all in a row. I could see that for sure. I could see Florida State upsetting them again because I've heard some good things about Florida State and Ashton Daniels and things they got going over there. I could see it. It's early on too, especially if you go with the Russell as a quarterback. I could see Florida State winning that game. But at the bare minimum, at the bare minimum, they go 8-4. The ceiling is 9-3. Gotta remember, this is a young team. Their average age is like 20 years old. So very, very young team. So if they hit a bit of a losing streak, Bama fans don't panic. You will, but don't panic. The team is very, very young. So Alabama, 9-3 at best, 8-4 at worse.

SPEAKER_01 21:07

All right, Heather,

SEC Breaking Away From NCAA

SPEAKER_01 21:08

what are you hearing about whether or not it's realistic for the SEC to break away from the NCA in the near future?

SPEAKER_04 21:15

Oh, it's very real. And this is something that has been going on for months because SEC presidents and chancellors have been talking about this since about February when they met in Nashville to talk about options of self-government if they cannot get federal legislation. I mean, that's where the conversations are. And you can look at the Big 12 and the Texas Tech incident with Brendan Swordsbean as an example of what this means. Because when you're talking about breaking away from the NCAA Limit, you're talking about making and enforcing your own rules. In that case, the NCAA Linux wasn't able to enforce its own rules on gambling. So the FCC and Greg Snakey will tell you we already do make some of our. Rules and enforce them. But if they can't get help from the federal government, get some antitrust protection so that every time they try to make a rule, the NCAA, they don't get turned around and somebody sues them for it. That's what these conversations are about.

SPEAKER_02 22:16

That was Heather Dennich of ESPN talking about the possibility of the SEC breaking away from the NCAA. I've seen several other clips relating to this topic. I've also seen comments. And some of the comments are the SEC is running away, the SC is just mad because they're not winning any championships. The SEC is just upset because the CFP, the college football playoff committee, isn't showing them enough love and things of that nature. And none of that is what this is actually about. That's those those are things, but as far as the SEC breaking away from the NCAA potentially, that has nothing to do with the CFP and national championships or anything like that. It simply comes down to rules and guidelines. The SEC wants to be able to enforce rules. Let's break away and enforce our own rules. And they've already started to enforce their own rules within their own league. But it is necessary to ensure the sport continues to be what the sport is. And it's so unfortunate that this is what it's coming to. That they're asking for politicians to create laws and really want Congress to get involved in this whole thing, which is a terrible idea, by the way. But what else can they do when every time they turn around as far as enforcing things and getting rules approved and getting rules passed through, they're met with a lawsuit. All you can do is threaten to break away. And the SEC, if they chose to do that, I hope they don't. But if they chose to do that, they would be just fine. It's the SEC.

Big Ten Versus SEC And The Closer

SPEAKER_02 25:04

Yes, some people believe the Big Ten is the better of the two conferences. And they're saying that because they've won the national championship the last three years with three different teams. And they're using that measurement because that is what the SEC used to promote themselves as the best. But that measurement should not have been used in that manner because it's deeper than that. It's about your whole league. And if you look at the entire leagues, the Big Ten at the top is elite. When you think about USC, Oregon, Michigan, Indiana, Ohio State, they are elite. But once you get to that middle and that bottom, it's off of them, baby, you know what? It's Charming. Add that to the fact that teams in the Big Ten do not are not required to play another powerful team. When you look at the SEC, you have your big dogs, your Texas, your Oklahoma, Bama, Georgia. But even the middle and the bottom are just as solid. The gap isn't so big. Even Kentucky almost beat Georgia last season. And the SEC require their teams to play a power four school every year. On top of the fact, much like the Big Ten, they're not playing nine conference games. So when you really look at it, which one is better? If you just want to use the Michael Jordan tactic, he's six and oh in the finals. They've won the last three national championships. You can. That's fine. But Michael Jordan was more than just 6-0. He also had five MVPs. He also has a defensive player of the award. He also never went to a game seven in the NBA Finals. So if you ask me, the Big Ten is LeBron James, and the NCC is Michael Jordan. This has been the third down conversation. If you enjoyed today's show, please remember to subscribe, leave a review, and share it with another football fan. Remember, every down matters, but the conversation starts here. Until next time, keep the chains moving and keep the conversation going. Jesus loves you, and I'm out. Peace.